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Another Major League Baseball Trend On Totals
Baseball is full of statistics and trends. I as fan of the games and baseball handicapper am always looking for those trends that will give me edge when making my predictions. Looks like I have a trend that calls my attention as games this week are played.
Here we are in the beginning of May 2010. We have had a full month of baseball and some great statistics and trends have developed. Today I am looking under the total plays. Most people when looking at totals just glance at the average runs to two score and take an average of that. Well you really miss out on a lot with that lazy technique.
I am going examine two teams. The teams are the Minnesota Twins and the Seattle Mariners. What I am looking is to determine if an angle or trends exists in betting the total on any of these teams. At first glance, and too many who don’t dig into the stats deep enough there is no angle or trend.
However we need to dig deeper. Looking at all games played this season that have gone under the total. The Mariners are 9-14-1 or 61% under against the total number. The Twins come in at 9-12-3 or 57% under against the total number.
After digger deeper into the stats we now see things start to improve. The Mariners who we said previously were 9-14-1 or 61% under against the total number, improve as we focus on home games played in Seattle. Now we see the Mariners are 3-8 or 73% under against the total number. That’s improvement of 12% but it gets better. Let’s compare the difference in facing a right handed to a left handed starting pitcher. The Mariners against a right handed starting pitcher are 8-9 or 53%. Against a left handed starter the Mariners now are 1-5-1 or 83%. Looks like we have found a great angle here. The Mariners playing at home against a starting left handed pitcher is very likely to go under the total. This week the Mariners host the Tampa Bay Rays then the Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim.
The Twins as we said earlier are 9-12-3 or 57% under against the total number all games played this season. The Twins, when playing at home, are 3-4-2 or once again 57% under against the total. The Twins, when playing on the road are 6-8-1 or 57% under against the total just as before. The Twins versus a staring right handed pitcher are 8-7-3 or 47% under against the total. However put the Twins versus a left handed pitcher you find they are 1-5-1 or 83% under against the total. As you can see the Twins are 47%-57% chance going under the total except when facing a lefty. All off sudden the under play has comes in at 83%. Something to consider this week at the Twins face the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles.
Here are two examples of betting the total just does not mean looking at the overall over and under stats. You need to break in down to more specific conditions and wait until those conditions appear again.
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