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Newest Contributor MARDU Says: “The year is 2008 not 1948. …”
Henry Gandolph here to introduce MARDU. Our newest contributor provides an interesting overview of the campaign season.
The year is 2008 not 1948. Political polling and perceptions cannot be assessed by the same parameters that they were even a decade ago, much less 6 decades ago.
The cultural changes that have occurred as a result of advanced technologies negate much conventional perceptions of how opinions are formed and expressed.
Political polling is conducted mostly by phone. Polling groups canvass only land lines, which gives a demographically distorted result, because younger people are much more likely to rely upon cell phones for communication. The pollsters query whoever answers the land line. This is usually an older adult household member. If a child answers the pollster will ask to speak to an adult. The pollster will attempt to determine whether the respondent is a registered, and/or likely voter. Other demographic information may or may not be sought.The consequence of these procedures is that the results are skewed towards older respondents.This may be the reason that current polls show the Presidential race to be closer than one might expect. I maintain that the only poll that matters is the one in which citizens cast their ballots for the candidates.
The economy is in recession. This is largely the result of extremely large deficits, resulting in un-redeemable national debt. The incumbent administration has the lowest approval rating in history. The Republican Party is in disgrace, having endured endless scandals, and many of its members are either in jail, under investigation or resigning to avoid prosecution.Members of the Executive Branch are under siege from Congressional investigations for criminal activity.
The Party’s presumptive nominee for President has only his support of a very unpopular and expensive protracted war as his primary issue in the campaign. He is 72 years old and exhibiting clear signs of mental confusion on a daily basis.
His opponent is a young, vibrant, charismatic, visionary. He has demonstrated uncanny political acumen in his campaign for his party’s nomination. He is short on governmental experience it must be said, and is of mixed racial heritage. Still he has managed to amass a substantial campaign war chest as well as having registered unprecedented numbers of new voters to The Democratic Party. During the primaries Democrats out polled Republicans by a margin of 3 to2.
I leave it to the reader to determine who will prevail in November.
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